In this section, we focus on two areas: On the one hand, what have we fundamentally achieved in a sustainable manner? On the other, what have we fundamentally got wrong that could lead us to a precipice? It is not our intention to single out commonplace achievements or errors, but to focus on our major assets and liabilities.

Political achievements
Economic development achievements
Social achievements
Our liabilities
Political challenges
Economic development challenges
Social challenges



Perspectives from members of the Dinokeng Scenario Team.

We need to see how the global economy responds to the current crisis. Where there is volatility in the pricing of primary commodities, how will the South African economy withstand this? The new centres of growth – India, China, Russia and Brazil – will impact on South Africa and we will see lower rates of growth over the next five years. We’ve seen the reduction of unemployment from 31% [in 2003] to 23% – any reversal would be dire.

A word of caution: there are constraints that we need to accept and live with. We cannot behave as if we are insulated and living on an island. We have a small and open economy. We are not a closed economy.

We need to work out our role vis a vis the region. Do we want to be the powerhouse or just another SADC country? What is our responsibility to the region? Take the xenophobia – do we have the capacity to process the nuance about what constitutes an economic versus a political refugee? Does Home Affairs know how to deal with this?